Why I Find Timing Stocks Hard
Have you ever watched those Technical Analysis you-tube videos, man they make timing stocks look so easy.
Notice how they always have past data, showing when and where to buy sell. It’s so easy when you look back at your stock charts to see where you should have sold for optimal profits.
You can’t see the forest through the woods. When the day comes that the stock you’ve been holding for 3 years starts to go up, do you sell it all in one days worth of run up.
Last week Ontario announced their CCBO model for selling canna, this was seen as good news. A province showing that they will indeed be ready for legalization in July 2018. The Standing Committee for Health also started discussions this week. With these two catalysts canna stocks have been gaining about 3% each day.
Now thinking back, we have seen run ups in the past. I’ve told my self, if there is an obvious run up I will sell off some stocks. Then buy back in when the drop happens.
This is easier said than done. Below is my canna stock portfolio, its sky rocketing!! Alright, not as much as you think. I bought 5000 shares of Cronos Group today @2.29. So part of the increase is the added $11,500 investment. Still my account went from about 133k to 147k when not looking at the latest purchase. About a 10% increase in 2 weeks.
Now looking at the chart above, you might think, there is no way you can continue on that amount of growth. As we saw last November if stocks go up way to much, they will crash. The hard part is knowing when the crash will be. With the canna sector a 10% gain can easily happen without a pull back. If I see a 50% gain in a few days, I will probably sell off some shares and lock in some profits. Like I shared before, I’m trying to get better at taking profits.
Looking at charts is like looking into the abyss, you don’t know what is going to happen next. Technical Analysis guys try to use data to predict what will happen, but there is so many moving pieces you just can’t predict day to day swings, or at least I haven’t learned it yet.
Love looking at this, there have been many run ups and crashes over the last year. They never act exactly the same. Market conditions are changing, we are getting closer to legalization by the day. Companies are starting to show massive revenue and are expanding international. You could think, today is the day to sell because they all went up 10%, sell off your shares waiting for a pull back and bam they announce Germany licenses or some other catalyst. At least that is my fear if I sold some shares, it would be the wrong move and the stock would sky rocket.
The chart above has lots of ups and downs but the overall direction of the market is up. I’m investing for the long term and most of the stocks should go up over the long run. Sure there will be a few losers, they my go bankrupt or get bought out. But the overall sector should do well, eventually. We may not be able to time the market perfectly but a 50% gain in a few days, may require locking in.
I’m not planning on selling, but who knows what my emotions will do over the next few days. Below is my Sept 12 end of day portfolio. In a weeks time I will either be saying, damn I wish I took some profits or thank good I didn’t sell any if this run continues. The market will decide for me soon enough.